Another coastal storm system will approach the area Tuesday and Wednesday of this coming week. As it has been all season, the models continue to have disagreements as to where the system will fully develop and where exactly it goes after doing so.
Currently, the GFS model is trending towards a storm that develops to our south, then moves Northeast, bringing very little precipitation to the area. The ECMWF (a European model) has the low much closer to the coast and more precipitation for the area.
Latest GFS for Wednesday Evening (00z Thursday):
As you can see, the GFS has the low about 500 miles further east than the ECMWF, which has the low just off the Delmarva coast on Wednesday evening. This gap is significant, as is the difference in the resulting weather for our area.
Given the seasonal trends, I am leaning towards the GFS solution and little to no snow. This is a low confidence forecast, and things will most certainly change. I will update as things (hopefully) come into better focus over the next few days.
