Arctic air arrives today…Setting the stage for wintry mix Tuesday?

A cold front will pass through today, ushering in arctic air on gusty northwest winds. There is a slight chance of rain and snow showers as the front passes but the real story will be the wind and the cold. Winds will gust to over 35mph this evening and tonight as temperatures fall into the low teens.

High pressure will build in tomorrow, but it will continue to be windy under mostly sunny skies. Highs will struggle into the mid 20s.

A reinforcing front will bring another chance of snow showers on Saturday before temperatures drop again Sunday. Highs will likely top out in the teens to near 20 on Sunday and lows Sunday night will be in the single digits.

Meanwhile, a storm system will be developing over the deep south Sunday and Monday, moving towards our area on Tuesday. Recent model trends have pushed the track of this storm further south, with the latest GFS taking the low just to our south. What this means is that a potentially significant winter storm could affect our area with snow, sleet, or freezing rain Tuesday into Wednesday.

This isn’t the first time this winter that we have seen the storm track shift south but then ultimately end up back north, keeping us warmer and keeping the frozen precipitation mainly north of our area so confidence in the forecast is low at this time. On the other hand, this is the strongest surge of cold air we have seen so far this season so confidence is very high that no matter where the storm ultimately ends up tracking, we will see some frozen precipitation. The questions are: Will the storm stay far enough south to be primarily snow? Will the snow mix with and then change to sleet and freezing rain? Will it change to all rain? The answers will be worked out over the next several days.

In the meantime, bundle up and prepare for bitterly cold air and gusty winds through the weekend!