Snow Forecast: February 16-17, 2015

The models have maintained their solutions today, bringing an area of low pressure towards the area tomorrow and sliding it off the North Carolina coast.

Winter Storm Watches have been issued by the National Weather Service for the entire state in the expectation of our most significant snowfall of the season thus far.

Timing:

Currently, it appears light snow will develop from southwest to northeast during the late afternoon and evening hours tomorrow. The snow will become heavier tomorrow night and into Tuesday morning. It will then taper off from southwest to northeast during the morning hours Tuesday.

Accumulations:

The models have trended a bit wetter today, meaning more moisture will push into the area than originally thought. This, combined with very cold and dry air will lead to higher snowfall totals. Snow ratios in the order of 12 to 15:1 (12-15″ of snow per 1″ of liquid) will yield higher totals than the standard 10:1 ratio.

Snow totals will be greatest across southern portions of the state and will taper down as you head northward. At this time, it looks like southern Maryland will see 8-10″ with isolated spots around 12″. Further north, totals will range from around 4″ near the Mason-Dixon line to about 8″ across central Maryland.

Behind the system, another shot of very cold air will work in. Expect temperatures back in the teens and 20s for highs for the latter half of the week.