The models continue to show the potential for significant snowfall in our area starting Sunday morning, and possibly lasting into Tuesday. There remains some discrepancies between the models on duration, intensity, track, and precipitation types, but the growing consensus is that regardless of the differences, our area is poised to see it’s greatest snowfall since the winter of 2018-19.
An area of low pressure will move into the Ohio River Valley before dying out as a new area of low pressure forms along the coast. This type of storm is called a “Miller B” as opposed to a “Miller A” which is an low pressure that develops along the Gulf of Mexico and moves up the east coast. Below, you will see the European model’s depiction of the storm as of today, showing low pressure die out over southern Ohio, as new low pressure forms off the Carolinas:
This solution brings front end snowfall into our area by Sunday morning, and as the new low takes over, some warming occurs, changing some areas over to a mix, but then as the low moves up the coast, and stalls a bit off the Delmarva, snowfall returns for most of the state and lasts well into Tuesday.
The front end snowfall is fairly consistent across the models, with several inches likely on Sunday. Beyond that, additional snowfall is possible (as shown here), but that is highly dependent on where the secondary low forms, how strong it becomes, and how slowly it moves up the coast. Right now, the European gives our area several more inches of snow from the coastal, as it stalls off the Delmarva before pulling away late Tuesday.
I will have much more information on this system as the details come into focus over the coming days. Stay tuned!
