Morning Snow Likely Tomorrow; Weekend Threat Fizzles

Tomorrow Morning

Summary:

  • A cold front will push through late tonight into tomorrow morning. Light rain along the front tonight will changeover to a period of snow before ending tomorrow.

Timing:

  • Changeover is likely to occur around 4AM, with several hours of snow likely. Ending from north to south from mid-morning to early afternoon.

GFS Model Projected Timing:

GFS – 10pm Tonight – 4pm Tomorrow

Impacts:

  • Falling temps and falling, accumulating snow will likely cause slick spots and impact the morning commute.
  • Light rain falling prior to the changeover will likely impact effectiveness of any pre-treatment of roadways.

Snowfall Forecast:

  • 1-3″ across most of the state, with highest amounts likely across north-central MD, and lowest amounts across southern MD and the lower Eastern Shore.

Forecast Confidence: MED/HIGH

Friday Night – Saturday

Summary:

The European model has completely trended to the GFS solution, with a weaker and more southern system. At this time, there is very little impact expected for our area.

Timing:

Late Friday into Saturday

Impacts:

No impacts are expected at this time

European Model Trend Loop:

ECMWF – Last 8 runs, valid at 4AM Saturday

As you can see above, the first several runs of the European show a major snowstorm over our area, but subsequent runs show a progression to a weaker and further south and east solution. It looks like, once again this winter, the GFS has outperformed the European model.

Forecast Confidence: MED/HIGH